New Survey Highlights Deep Divides in Trust and Confidence Ahead of 2024 Election

As the 2024 election approaches, a new survey from Issue One conducted by GQR and Redbud Consulting (N=1,500; fielded September 3-9, 2024) reveals sharp divides among Americans regarding trust in elections, with gaps in trust along partisan, gender, and educational measures. The results suggest widespread skepticism about election results particularly among Trump supporters, which poses significant concerns for election integrity and legitimacy.

The survey highlights several key concerns:

• Gender and Partisan Gaps: While 57% of Americans are satisfied with how the electoral system works, only 52% of women express satisfaction, compared to 67% of men. White women show even lower satisfaction, with only 48% approving of the system. Republicans (52%) and Independents (49%) are far less likely than Democrats (74%) to express satisfaction with how democracy works in the U.S.
• Trust in Election Results: Only 37% of Americans say they will have a lot of trust in the results of the 2024 election regardless of who wins, with Republicans (23%) and Trump supporters (21%) showing the least confidence. Trust further declines when asked if they would trust the results if their preferred candidate loses, with just 31% of Americans saying they would trust the outcome a lot.
• Concerns Over Social Media: Over half of Americans (54%) are extremely or very concerned about foreign interference via social media, and 58% are similarly worried about the potential for social media to incite violence after the election. Alarmingly, a majority of respondents do not trust social platforms to prevent the spread of false information.

Dr. Carah Ong Whaley, director of election protection at Issue One, emphasized the critical need to address these issues, stating:

“The erosion of trust in elections is a direct threat to democracy. We must take urgent action to restore public confidence in the integrity of our elections. The findings underscore the urgent need for public education about the people from our communities who are working tirelessly to ensure safe and secure elections, and the need for public education about the counting, canvassing and certification of elections. Findings also demonstrate that political candidates and elected officials must commit to accepting the results of the election, regardless of who wins, and committing to the peaceful transfer of power, which are essential for ensuring stability in governance, confidence in social, economic and political institutions.”

The survey underscores the significant challenges facing election officials, lawmakers, and advocates who seek to rebuild trust in American democracy. The findings reveal an electorate divided not only by political beliefs but also by fundamental confidence in the system itself, raising concerns about the long-term health of U.S. democratic institutions.