Analysis
As the 2024 election approaches, a new survey from Issue One conducted by GQR and Redbud Consulting (N=1,500; fielded September 3-9, 2024) reveals sharp divides among Americans regarding trust in elections, with gaps in trust along partisan, gender, and educational measures. The results suggest widespread skepticism about election results particularly among Trump supporters, which poses significant concerns for election integrity and legitimacy. The findings underscore the urgent need for public education about the people from our communities who are working tirelessly to ensure safe and secure elections, and the need for public education about the counting, canvassing and certification of elections. Findings also demonstrate that political candidates and elected officials must commit to accepting the results of the election, regardless of who wins, and committing to the peaceful transfer of power, which are essential for ensuring stability in governance and confidence in social, economic, and political institutions.
Most Americans (57%) are very or somewhat satisfied with the way the electoral system works in this country. Men (67%) are more likely than women (52%) to express satisfaction with the electoral system, and this pattern is largely driven by lower satisfaction among white women (48%).
Republicans (52%) and independents (49%) are much less likely than Democrats (74%) to express satisfaction with the way democracy works in the U.S., and Trump supporters (49%) are much less likely than Harris supporters (74%) to say they are satisfied. And while 67% of men express satisfaction with how democracy works, only 52% of women do. White women (48%) and independent women (42%) are groups with the lowest percentage of satisfaction with how democracy works.
Trust in election results varies by the way in which we asked questions and is mediated by various factors, including partisan identification, support for candidates and satisfaction with how democracy and electoral system are working. When we asked respondents if they will trust the election results regardless of who wins, 37% say they will have a lot of trust in the results, 38% say somewhat, 18% say a little and 6% say not at all. Republicans (23%) and independents (30%) are less likely than Democrats (56%) to say they have a lot of trust in the election results. Trump supporters (21%) are substantially less likely than Harris supporters (60%) to say they will trust the election result a lot regardless of who wins. Those who are satisfied with democracy in the U.S. (51%) are much more likely than those who are not (18%) to trust the results, and those who are satisfied with how the electoral system works (47%) are more likely than those who are not (25%) to say they will trust the election outcome a lot regardless of who wins. Trump supporters satisfied with how democracy works (34%) are four times more likely than Trump voters who are not (8%) to say they will trust the results. Trump supporters who are satisfied with how the electoral system works (33%) are eight times more likely than those who are not (4%) to say they will trust the results a lot.
When we varied the question to ask whether respondents will trust results if their preferred candidate loses the election, trust drops, with 31% of respondents saying they will trust the results a lot, 30% somewhat, 17% a little, and 22% not at all. Republicans (19%) are much less likely than independents (31%) and Democrats (42%) to trust the results a lot if the candidate they oppose wins. Respondents who are satisfied with how democracy is working in the U.S. (42%) are more likely than those who are not (14%), and those who are satisfied with the electoral system (39%) are more likely than those who are not (20%) to say they will trust the results a lot if their preferred candidate loses. Only 18% of Trump supporters say they will trust the results a lot if he loses.
More than half of Americans (54%) are extremely or very concerned about foreign groups from places like Iran, China, and Russia using social media to influence the election. There is a slight difference between Harris supporters (58%) and Trump supporters (52%) who are extremely or very concerned about foreign actors using social media to influence the election. A similar proportion of Americans (54%) are extremely or very concerned about groups using social media to try to cast doubts on the results of the election. Harris supporters (64%) are more worried about this than Trump supporters (50%) – a larger difference than on foreign interference. In addition, a majority of Americans (58%) are extremely or very concerned that groups will use social media to incite violence after the election. Nearly two-thirds of Harris supporters (65%) and a majority of Trump supporters (55%) are very or extremely worried about groups using social media to incite post-election violence.
Finally, the majority of Americans are not confident in social platforms to prevent the spread of false information.
Issue: Election Protection
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